FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tobias

Haahr

GKDenmark · Vejle Boldklub

№ 613975Emerging €304k −1.80

Player dossierSuperliga

TobiasHaahr

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Vejle Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
22
Height
191 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Haahr at €50k. Model A, which never saw Haahr during training, estimates €304k: the market value is 84% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×6.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €509k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.80A €304k▼ −2.32B €509k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
5
Minutes
480
Started
5/5
Min / app
96
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Haahr…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50kModel A €304k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Tobias Haahr's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 32nd2ndMinutes62ndStarts14thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2021
Peak
€50k
Aug 2021
Model target
€50k
May 2026
Valuations
10
0 club changes
May 2026€50kVejle BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50k, Vejle Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-01€50kVejle Boldklub
2021-12-28€50kVejle Boldklub
2022-06-20€50kVejle Boldklub
2022-12-22€50kVejle Boldklub
2023-06-26€50kVejle Boldklub
2023-12-21€50kVejle Boldklub
2024-12-09€50kVejle Boldklub
2025-06-16€50kVejle Boldklub
2025-12-15€50kVejle Boldklub
2026-05-25€50kVejle Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.804

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 2% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Haahr appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).