FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Isaac Price

Isaac

Price

CMNorthern Ireland · West Bromwich Albion

№ 612749Elite €4.5M +0.99

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

IsaacPrice

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
West Bromwich Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
Northern Ireland
Age
22
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Price at €12M. Model A, which never saw Price during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 169% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.99A €4.5M▲ +2.46B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,985
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
21/25
Min / app
79
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Price…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Isaac Price's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 26th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals26thAssists36thMinutes77thStarts6thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

84% this player69% midfielder median77th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Nov 2022
Peak
€12M
Dec 2025
Model target
€12M
May 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
May 2026€12MWest Bromwich AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €12M, West Bromwich Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-11-03€400kEverton FC U21
2023-10-23€700kStandard Liège
2023-12-19€1.5MStandard Liège
2024-03-22€2MStandard Liège
2024-06-04€2MStandard Liège
2024-10-02€2.5MStandard Liège
2024-12-11€3MStandard Liège
2025-05-27€3MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-10-06€10MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-12-03€12MWest Bromwich Albion
2026-03-03€10MWest Bromwich Albion
2026-05-28€12MWest Bromwich Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.991

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Price appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).