FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Bashir

Humphreys

CBEngland · Burnley FC

№ 612517Elite €10.2M +0.16

Player dossierPremier League

BashirHumphreys

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
23
Height
186 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Humphreys at €12M. Model A, which never saw Humphreys during training, estimates €10.2M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €948k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €10.2M▲ +2.54B €948k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,713
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
19/22
Min / app
78
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Humphreys…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €10.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Bashir Humphreys's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals79thAssists27thMinutes59thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.11 this player0.04 defender median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jan 2023
Peak
€15M
Mar 2026
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2026€12MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-01-27€500kSC Paderborn 07
2023-03-31€1MSC Paderborn 07
2023-06-28€3MSC Paderborn 07
2023-12-21€5MSwansea City
2024-05-24€4.8MSwansea City
2024-12-30€5.5MBurnley FC
2025-03-28€6.5MBurnley FC
2025-05-27€7MBurnley FC
2025-10-17€12MBurnley FC
2025-12-09€12MBurnley FC
2026-03-09€15MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€12MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.163

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 84% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Humphreys appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).