FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Liam Delap

Liam

Delap

CFEngland · Chelsea FC

№ 610849Elite €28.4M −0.02

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

LiamDelap

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
23
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Delap at €28M. Model A, which never saw Delap during training, estimates €28.4M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €30.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €28.4M▼ −0.08B €30.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
86
Minutes
4,569
Goals
15
Assists
7
Started
52/86
Min / app
53
Cards
20Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Delap…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €28.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Liam Delap's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 71st56thGoals46thAssists87thMinutes52ndStarts70thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,569 this player2,242 attacker median87th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2020
Peak
€40M
May 2025
Model target
€28M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
5 club changes
Jun 2026€28MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €28M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-13€1MManchester City U23
2022-06-15€1.5MManchester City U23
2022-09-14€7MStoke City
2022-10-27€7MStoke City
2023-06-01€5MManchester City U21
2023-10-27€7MHull City
2023-12-21€8MHull City
2024-05-24€8MHull City
2024-10-01€15MIpswich Town
2024-12-16€25MIpswich Town
2025-03-18€35MIpswich Town
2025-05-30€40MIpswich Town
2025-12-09€35MChelsea FC
2026-03-09€32MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€28MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.015

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 69% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 91% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Delap appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).