FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Ardon Jashari

Ardon

Jashari

DMSwitzerland · AC Milan

№ 608172Elite €17.7M +0.34

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

ArdonJashari

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
AC Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
Switzerland
Age
23
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jashari at €25M. Model A, which never saw Jashari during training, estimates €17.7M: the market value is 41% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €17.7M▲ +0.90B €10.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,716
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
41/53
Min / app
70
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jashari…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €17.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ardon Jashari's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 92nd33rdGoals61stAssists69thMinutes65thStarts27thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

26% this player0% midfielder median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2020
Peak
€32M
Jun 2025
Model target
€25M
May 2026
Valuations
18
3 club changes
May 2026€25MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €25M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-31€25kFC Luzern U21
2020-12-28€25kFC Luzern U21
2021-06-23€100kFC Luzern U21
2022-03-28€700kFC Luzern
2022-06-08€1MFC Luzern
2022-11-10€2.5MFC Luzern
2023-03-28€6MFC Luzern
2023-06-07€7.5MFC Luzern
2023-10-19€6.5MFC Luzern
2023-12-21€6.5MFC Luzern
2024-03-28€6MFC Luzern
2024-05-31€6MFC Luzern
2024-12-11€11MClub Brugge KV
2025-03-26€25MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€32MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-23€32MAC Milan
2026-03-24€30MAC Milan
2026-05-29€25MAC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.344

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 88% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jashari appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).