FairValue

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Portrait of Éderson

Éderson

CMBrazil · Atalanta BC

№ 607854World Class €21.6M +0.74

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

Éderson

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Brazil
Age
26
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Éderson at €45M. Model A, which never saw Éderson during training, estimates €21.6M: the market value is 109% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.74A €21.6M▲ +0.72B €21.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
91
Minutes
7,098
Goals
8
Assists
4
Started
80/91
Min / app
78
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Éderson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €21.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Éderson's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 87th56thGoals29thAssists98thMinutes84thStarts94thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,098 this player2,607 midfielder median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2019
Peak
€50M
Dec 2024
Model target
€45M
May 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
May 2026€45MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €45M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-02-18€100kDesportivo Brasil Ltda (SP)
2019-10-16€1.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2019-11-27€2.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2020-04-08€2.3MSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2020-09-09€6MSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2021-02-09€4MSport Club Corinthians Paulista
2021-05-28€4MFortaleza Esporte Clube
2021-12-17€5MFortaleza Esporte Clube
2022-06-07€13MUS Salernitana 1919
2022-09-27€20MAtalanta BC
2022-11-11€20MAtalanta BC
2023-06-15€20MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€27MAtalanta BC
2024-03-12€30MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€40MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€50MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€50MAtalanta BC
2025-10-07€45MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€40MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€45MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.735

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 97% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Éderson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).