Jonas
Urbig
GKGermany · Bayern Munich
Player dossierBundesliga
JonasUrbig
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Urbig at €18M. Model A, which never saw Urbig during training, estimates €13.5M: the market value is 33% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 2,702
- Started
- 28/32
- Min / app
- 84
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Urbig…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
21% this player0% goalkeeper median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Aug 2021
- Peak
- €18M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €18M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €18M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-07 | €200k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2021-12-22 | €300k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2022-06-09 | €300k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2022-11-09 | €300k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-03-31 | €800k | SSV Jahn Regensburg |
| 2023-06-28 | €1.5M | SSV Jahn Regensburg |
| 2023-10-20 | €2M | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 2023-12-15 | €3M | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 2024-03-22 | €4M | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 2024-06-06 | €4M | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-03-27 | €8M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €12M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €12M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-03-20 | €15M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.284
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 80% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 94% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Urbig appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GnabrySSBayern Munich · Bundesliga€18M
- AntonCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€18M
- SchickCFBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€18M
- MittelstädtLBVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€18M
- VicarioGKTottenham Hotspur · goalkeepers€18M
- TzolakisGKOlympiacos Piraeus · goalkeepers€18M
- HornicekGKSC Braga · goalkeepers€18M
- RestesGKFC Toulouse · goalkeepers€18M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).