FairValue

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Anthony

Lopes

GKPortugal · FC Nantes

№ 60561Emerging €417k +0.77

Player dossierLigue 1

AnthonyLopes

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Nantes
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Portugal
Age
35
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lopes at €900k. Model A, which never saw Lopes during training, estimates €417k: the market value is 116% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €385k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €417k▲ +0.85B €385k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
4,353
Started
49/49
Min / app
89
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lopes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €417k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Anthony Lopes's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 32nd71stMinutes62ndStarts73rdRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,789 this player1,560 goalkeeper median73rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2009
Peak
€25M
Mar 2019
Model target
€900k
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
2 club changes
Jun 2026€900kFC NantesValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, FC Nantes. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-09-08€50kOlympique Lyon B
2011-09-25€150kOlympique Lyon
2011-12-24€150kOlympique Lyon
2012-05-23€200kOlympique Lyon
2013-01-07€500kOlympique Lyon
2013-05-30€1MOlympique Lyon
2013-09-16€1.5MOlympique Lyon
2014-01-14€3MOlympique Lyon
2014-08-07€5MOlympique Lyon
2015-01-14€7.5MOlympique Lyon
2015-06-06€10MOlympique Lyon
2016-02-04€12MOlympique Lyon
2016-06-01€13MOlympique Lyon
2016-07-13€13MOlympique Lyon
2017-01-16€14MOlympique Lyon
2017-06-01€14MOlympique Lyon
2018-01-24€18MOlympique Lyon
2018-06-04€20MOlympique Lyon
2018-12-17€20MOlympique Lyon
2019-03-07€25MOlympique Lyon
2019-06-03€25MOlympique Lyon
2019-12-19€22MOlympique Lyon
2020-04-08€17.5MOlympique Lyon
2020-10-15€19MOlympique Lyon
2021-04-09€16MOlympique Lyon
2021-06-01€14MOlympique Lyon
2021-12-16€12MOlympique Lyon
2022-05-30€10MOlympique Lyon
2022-11-02€9MOlympique Lyon
2023-06-27€8MOlympique Lyon
2023-10-16€6MOlympique Lyon
2023-12-18€5MOlympique Lyon
2024-06-03€4MOlympique Lyon
2024-10-07€2MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-10€1.5MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€1.2MFC Nantes
2025-12-15€1MFC Nantes
2026-06-01€900kFC Nantes

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.770

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 8% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 45% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lopes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).