FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Andrija

Janjic

CBBosnia-Herzegovina · Zorya Lugansk

№ 603126Emerging €890k −0.24

Player dossierPremier Liha

AndrijaJanjic

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Zorya Lugansk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
24
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Janjic at €700k. Model A, which never saw Janjic during training, estimates €890k: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €890k▼ −0.51B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
1,564
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
18/21
Min / app
74
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Janjic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €890k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Andrija Janjic's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 30th91stGoals17thAssists24thMinutes57thStarts47thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.12 this player0.03 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Apr 2022
Peak
€700k
Jun 2026
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
Jun 2026€700kZorya LuganskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, Zorya Lugansk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-04-05€125kFK Zvijezda 09
2022-11-24€75kFK Zvijezda 09
2023-03-01€125kFK Zvijezda 09
2023-06-13€150kFK Zvijezda 09
2023-12-07€150kFK Radnik Bijeljina
2024-06-11€150kFK Radnik Bijeljina
2024-12-19€200kFK Radnik Bijeljina
2025-06-04€300kFK Radnik Bijeljina
2025-12-18€600kZorya Lugansk
2026-06-02€700kZorya Lugansk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.240

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 67% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Janjic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).