FairValue

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Portrait of Matheus Nunes

Matheus

Nunes

RBPortugal · Manchester City

№ 601883World Class €45.1M +0.10

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MatheusNunes

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
27
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nunes at €50M. Model A, which never saw Nunes during training, estimates €45.1M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €25.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €45.1M▲ +0.69B €25.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
89
Minutes
6,659
Goals
3
Assists
20
Started
75/89
Min / app
75
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nunes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €45.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Matheus Nunes's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 82nd57thGoals99thAssists97thMinutes54thStarts99thRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,159 this player1,687 defender median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€3M
Aug 2020
Peak
€55M
Oct 2023
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
2 club changes
Jun 2026€50MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-17€3MSporting CP
2021-01-28€5MSporting CP
2021-05-21€5MSporting CP
2021-09-21€10MSporting CP
2021-12-27€22MSporting CP
2022-03-10€30MSporting CP
2022-05-31€35MSporting CP
2022-09-15€45MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-11-03€45MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20€45MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-10-09€55MManchester City
2023-12-19€55MManchester City
2024-03-14€50MManchester City
2024-05-27€50MManchester City
2024-10-01€40MManchester City
2024-12-16€40MManchester City
2025-03-18€35MManchester City
2025-05-30€35MManchester City
2025-12-09€38MManchester City
2026-03-09€45MManchester City
2026-06-03€50MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.103

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nunes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).