Arkadiusz
Pyrka
RBPoland · FC St. Pauli
Player dossierBundesliga
ArkadiuszPyrka
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- FC St. Pauli
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Poland
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 177 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Pyrka at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Pyrka during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 35
- Minutes
- 2,887
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 34/35
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pyrka…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player83% defender median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Aug 2020
- Peak
- €3.5M
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €3.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 1 club change
May 2026: €3.5M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-18 | €100k | Piast Gliwice |
| 2021-01-19 | €300k | Piast Gliwice |
| 2021-05-21 | €600k | Piast Gliwice |
| 2021-10-15 | €750k | Piast Gliwice |
| 2021-12-31 | €1M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2022-06-14 | €1M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2022-11-16 | €800k | Piast Gliwice |
| 2023-03-30 | €1M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2023-06-09 | €1.2M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2023-10-06 | €1.5M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2023-12-29 | €2M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2024-06-07 | €2M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2024-12-09 | €2M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2025-06-06 | €2M | Piast Gliwice |
| 2025-12-19 | €3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-03-20 | €3.5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-05-27 | €3.5M | FC St. Pauli |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.544
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 37% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 63% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pyrka appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TabakovicCFBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€3.5M
- KlostermannCBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€3.5M
- PrömelCMTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€3.5M
- ÖzcanDMBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€3.5M
- SpinazzolaLBSSC Napoli · defenders€3.5M
- DunkCBBrighton & Hove Albion · defenders€3.5M
- KempfCBComo 1907 · defenders€3.5M
- OlazaLBFC Krasnodar · defenders€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).