FairValue

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Tómas Bent

Magnússon

CMIceland · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 599628Emerging €2.3M −1.34

Player dossierPremiership

Tómas BentMagnússon

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Iceland
Age
23
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Magnússon at €600k. Model A, which never saw Magnússon during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 74% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.34A €2.3M▼ −1.36B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,639
Goals
5
Assists
0
Started
18/31
Min / app
53
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Magnússon…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tómas Bent Magnússon's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 79th91stGoals8thAssists28thMinutes32ndStarts53rdRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.27 this player0.08 midfielder median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2020
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
9
4 club changes
May 2026€600kHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-01€25kÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
2021-10-16€50kÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
2022-12-15€25kProvidence Friars (Providence College)
2023-12-08€50kÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
2024-12-05€50kÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
2025-06-25€50kValur Reykjavík
2025-12-10€300kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-03-05€500kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€600kHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.337

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 63% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Magnússon appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).