FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Marat

Apshatsev

CMRussia · Rubin Kazan

№ 599046Emerging €616k −0.90

Player dossierPremier Liga

MaratApshatsev

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Rubin Kazan
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
25
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Apshatsev at €250k. Model A, which never saw Apshatsev during training, estimates €616k: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €547k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.90A €616k▼ −0.78B €547k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
856
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
13/20
Min / app
43
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Apshatsev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €616k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Marat Apshatsev's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 10th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 8th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists10thMinutes42ndStarts8thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

65% this player69% midfielder median42nd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Sept 2018
Peak
€500k
Jun 2023
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
17
2 club changes
May 2026€250kRubin KazanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Rubin Kazan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-20€125kSpartak Nalchik
2018-12-20€125kSpartak Nalchik
2019-06-14€150kSpartak Nalchik
2019-12-23€175kSpartak Nalchik
2020-06-29€175kSpartak Nalchik
2020-12-29€175kSpartak Nalchik
2021-06-28€225kSpartak Nalchik
2021-12-07€300kTom Tomsk
2022-06-02€400kRubin Kazan
2022-12-08€400kRubin Kazan
2023-06-19€500kRubin Kazan
2023-12-13€500kRubin Kazan
2024-06-04€400kRubin Kazan
2024-12-12€300kRubin Kazan
2025-06-04€300kRubin Kazan
2025-12-16€250kRubin Kazan
2026-05-26€250kRubin Kazan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.902

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 3% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Apshatsev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).