FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Aymane

Mourid

DMMorocco · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 593480Emerging €1M −0.40

Player dossierPremier Liga

AymaneMourid

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Morocco
Age
26
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mourid at €700k. Model A, which never saw Mourid during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €628k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €1M▲ +0.11B €628k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
805
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
8/19
Min / app
42
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mourid…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Aymane Mourid's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 97th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals97thAssists8thMinutes14thStarts24thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.34 this player0.09 midfielder median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Apr 2021
Peak
€700k
Sept 2025
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
14
3 club changes
May 2026€700kBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-04-11€225kSC Chabab Mohammédia
2021-07-28€200kSC Chabab Mohammédia
2021-12-30€200kCD Leganés B
2022-06-29€200kCD Leganés B
2022-11-11€175kUnion Touarga Sportif
2023-02-06€200kUnion Touarga Sportif
2023-07-03€250kUnion Touarga Sportif
2024-01-29€250kUnion Touarga Sportif
2024-06-28€450kUnion Touarga Sportif
2025-01-08€600kUnion Touarga Sportif
2025-05-28€600kUnion Touarga Sportif
2025-09-18€700kBaltika Kaliningrad
2025-12-16€700kBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26€700kBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.395

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 24% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mourid appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).