Aitor
Paredes
CBSpain · Athletic Bilbao
Player dossierLaLiga
AitorParedes
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Athletic Bilbao
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Paredes at €7.5M. Model A, which never saw Paredes during training, estimates €10.2M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 66
- Minutes
- 5,384
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 60/66
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Paredes…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
27% this player0% defender median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €22M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €7.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €7.5M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-03 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-01-07 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-06-30 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2021-12-30 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-06-29 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-09-23 | €400k | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2022-11-07 | €400k | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2022-12-29 | €400k | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-06-13 | €1M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-07-12 | €4M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-10-13 | €8M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2023-12-22 | €12M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-03-21 | €15M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-06-07 | €22M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-12-27 | €22M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-06-09 | €22M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-12-12 | €18M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2026-03-16 | €15M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2026-06-05 | €7.5M | Athletic Bilbao |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.305
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Paredes appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SowCMSevilla FC · LaLiga€7.5M
- MartínezCFDeportivo Alavés · LaLiga€7.5M
- MendyDMSevilla FC · LaLiga€7.5M
- PuadoLWRCD Espanyol Barcelona · LaLiga€7.5M
- LorenzoRBSSC Napoli · defenders€7.5M
- SantosLBZenit St. Petersburg · defenders€7.5M
- MontesCBLokomotiv Moscow · defenders€7.5M
- CocoCBTorino FC · defenders€7.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).