FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ryan

Flamingo

CBNetherlands · PSV Eindhoven

№ 586429Elite €17.8M −0.24

Player dossierEredivisie

RyanFlamingo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
PSV Eindhoven
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
23
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Flamingo at €14M. Model A, which never saw Flamingo during training, estimates €17.8M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €19.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €17.8M▼ −0.35B €19.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
91
Minutes
6,394
Goals
6
Assists
4
Started
67/91
Min / app
70
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Flamingo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €14MModel A €17.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ryan Flamingo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 80th81stGoals61stAssists95thMinutes32ndStarts68thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,394 this player2,860 defender median95th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jun 2021
Peak
€20M
May 2025
Model target
€14M
May 2026
Valuations
12
4 club changes
May 2026€14MPSV EindhovenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €14M, PSV Eindhoven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-30€250kAlmere City FC U21
2022-06-23€1MSassuolo Primavera
2022-11-11€2MVitesse Arnhem
2023-06-23€2.5MVitesse Arnhem
2023-12-15€3MFC Utrecht
2024-05-31€7MFC Utrecht
2024-10-14€12MPSV Eindhoven
2024-12-17€16MPSV Eindhoven
2025-05-28€20MPSV Eindhoven
2025-12-02€17MPSV Eindhoven
2026-03-11€14MPSV Eindhoven
2026-05-28€14MPSV Eindhoven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.238

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 95% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Flamingo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).