FairValue

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Andrej

Ilic

CFSerbia · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 583699Established €15.1M −0.52

Player dossierBundesliga

AndrejIlic

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Serbia
Age
26
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ilic at €9M. Model A, which never saw Ilic during training, estimates €15.1M: the market value is 40% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €15.1M▲ +0.27B €6.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
3,358
Goals
13
Assists
12
Started
37/51
Min / app
66
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ilic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €9M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €9MModel A €15.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andrej Ilic's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 56th67thGoals93rdAssists72ndMinutes72ndStarts84thRecent56thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.32 this player0.15 attacker median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jan 2019
Peak
€9M
May 2026
Model target
€9M
May 2026
Valuations
18
5 club changes
May 2026€9M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €9M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-14€150kFK Napredak Krusevac
2019-06-09€250kFK Napredak Krusevac
2019-10-28€300kFK Napredak Krusevac
2020-06-28€250kFK Napredak Krusevac
2020-12-22€300kFK Javor-Matis Ivanjica
2021-06-12€500kFK Javor-Matis Ivanjica
2021-12-24€700kFC RFS
2022-06-13€1.2MFC RFS
2022-11-23€1.2MFC RFS
2023-05-11€1MFC RFS
2023-12-15€2.3MVålerenga Fotball Elite
2024-03-19€3MLOSC Lille
2024-06-03€3MLOSC Lille
2024-12-20€2.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-06-05€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-10-14€6M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€6M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€9M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.517

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 64% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 76% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ilic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).