FairValue

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Portrait of Antoine Semenyo

Antoine

Semenyo

RWGhana · Manchester City

№ 583255World Class €52.7M +0.42

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AntoineSemenyo

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ghana
Age
26
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Semenyo at €80M. Model A, which never saw Semenyo during training, estimates €52.7M: the market value is 52% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €32.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €52.7M▲ +0.89B €32.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
89
Minutes
7,342
Goals
33
Assists
13
Started
82/89
Min / app
82
Cards
17Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Semenyo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €80M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €80MModel A €52.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Antoine Semenyo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 58th77thGoals55thAssists99thMinutes97thStarts99thRecent58thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,342 this player2,242 attacker median99th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jun 2019
Peak
€80M
Jun 2026
Model target
€80M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
4 club changes
Jun 2026€80MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €80M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-28€500kBristol City
2020-04-08€450kSunderland AFC
2020-10-15€500kBristol City
2020-12-22€1.3MBristol City
2021-03-10€1.3MBristol City
2021-06-29€1.5MBristol City
2021-11-24€1.2MBristol City
2022-05-13€2.5MBristol City
2022-10-27€3MBristol City
2023-03-16€9MAFC Bournemouth
2023-06-20€9MAFC Bournemouth
2023-12-19€10MAFC Bournemouth
2024-05-27€10MAFC Bournemouth
2024-10-01€20MAFC Bournemouth
2024-12-16€28MAFC Bournemouth
2025-03-18€35MAFC Bournemouth
2025-05-30€40MAFC Bournemouth
2025-10-17€55MAFC Bournemouth
2025-12-09€65MAFC Bournemouth
2026-03-09€75MManchester City
2026-06-03€80MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.417

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 97% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Semenyo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).