Kristian
Arnstad
LWNorway · Aarhus GF
Player dossierSuperliga
KristianArnstad
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Aarhus GF
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Norway
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 175 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 25 May 2026
SuperligaReading the valuation
The market values Arnstad at €6M. Model A, which never saw Arnstad during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 46
- Minutes
- 3,524
- Goals
- 10
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 40/46
- Min / app
- 77
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arnstad…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
87% this player59% attacker median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Jan 2021
- Peak
- €6M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €6M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 1 club change
May 2026: €6M, Aarhus GF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-04 | €500k | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2021-06-07 | €500k | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-01-06 | €500k | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-04-12 | €400k | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-05-26 | €1M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-09-07 | €2M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-11-04 | €3M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2023-06-09 | €2.5M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2023-12-19 | €2M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2024-06-04 | €2M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2024-12-09 | €2M | Aarhus GF |
| 2025-06-16 | €2.5M | Aarhus GF |
| 2025-12-15 | €5M | Aarhus GF |
| 2026-05-25 | €6M | Aarhus GF |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.335
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Joint 8th highest observed value among 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Arnstad appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BillingCMFC Midtjylland · Superliga€6M
- SørensenCBFC Midtjylland · Superliga€6M
- HuescasRBFC Copenhagen · Superliga€6M
- PereiraCBFC Copenhagen · Superliga€6M
- LukakuCFSSC Napoli · attackers€6M
- MorataCFComo 1907 · attackers€6M
- AkpomCFIpswich Town · attackers€6M
- TraoréRWWest Ham United · attackers€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).