Rayan

Aït-Nouri

LBAlgeria · Manchester City

№ 578391World Class €30.2M +0.28

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RayanAït-Nouri

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club: Manchester City
League: Premier League
Nationality: Algeria
Age: 24
Height: 180 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aït-Nouri at €40M. Model A, which never saw Aït-Nouri during training, estimates €30.2M: the market value is 33% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 72
Minutes: 5,297
Goals: 5
Assists: 13
Started: 63/72
Min / app: 74
Cards: 12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aït-Nouri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.04 defender median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €150k; Sept 2018
Peak: €40M; Oct 2025
Model target: €40M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 25; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€40MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2018-09-06	€150k	Angers SCO
2018-12-17	€150k	Angers SCO
2019-06-03	€500k	Angers SCO
2019-09-27	€6M	Angers SCO
2019-12-19	€12M	Angers SCO
2020-02-11	€17M	Angers SCO
2020-04-08	€15.5M	Angers SCO
2020-08-03	€20M	Angers SCO
2020-10-13	€20M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2021-03-18	€20M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2021-06-08	€18M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2021-12-23	€15M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2022-06-15	€20M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2022-09-15	€22M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2022-11-03	€22M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20	€22M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-10-09	€25M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-12-19	€28M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-03-14	€32M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-05-27	€35M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-12-16	€35M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2025-05-30	€35M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2025-10-17	€40M	Manchester City
2025-12-09	€40M	Manchester City
2026-06-03	€40M	Manchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.282

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Aït-Nouri appears

TerminalPremier League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).