FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Taiga

Hata

LBJapan · Sint-Truidense VV

№ 570572Established €4M −0.47

Player dossierPro League

TaigaHata

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Sint-Truidense VV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Japan
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hata at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Hata during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.47A €4M▲ +0.02B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,443
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
28/32
Min / app
76
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hata…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Taiga Hata's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 30th54thGoals88thAssists42ndMinutes62ndStarts75thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.15 this player0.04 defender median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jan 2021
Peak
€2.5M
Mar 2026
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
1 club change
Jun 2026€2.5MSint-Truidense VVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Sint-Truidense VV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-29€250kShonan Bellmare
2021-06-29€250kShonan Bellmare
2022-01-14€350kShonan Bellmare
2022-06-28€450kShonan Bellmare
2023-01-06€450kShonan Bellmare
2023-06-28€500kShonan Bellmare
2024-02-22€500kShonan Bellmare
2024-06-12€600kShonan Bellmare
2024-12-10€650kShonan Bellmare
2025-05-29€650kShonan Bellmare
2025-10-01€1MSint-Truidense VV
2025-12-10€1.5MSint-Truidense VV
2026-03-13€2.5MSint-Truidense VV
2026-06-04€2.5MSint-Truidense VV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.471

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 60% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hata appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).