FairValue

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Mathias

Kvistgaarden

CFDenmark · Norwich City

№ 569663Established €17M −1.04

Player dossierPremier League

MathiasKvistgaarden

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Norwich City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kvistgaarden at €6M. Model A, which never saw Kvistgaarden during training, estimates €17M: the market value is 65% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.84. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.04A €17M▲ +0.24B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,070
Goals
17
Assists
6
Started
25/32
Min / app
65
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kvistgaarden…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €17M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Mathias Kvistgaarden's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 69th98thGoals85thAssists47thMinutes81stStarts6thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.74 this player0.26 attacker median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2020
Peak
€15M
Jun 2025
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
15
2 club changes
May 2026€6MNorwich CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Norwich City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-31€150kBröndby IF U19
2020-12-23€200kBröndby IF U19
2021-06-04€200kBröndby IF U19
2021-12-28€200kBröndby IF
2022-06-20€2MBröndby IF
2022-12-22€2MBröndby IF
2023-06-26€3MBröndby IF
2023-12-21€5MBröndby IF
2024-06-10€5MBröndby IF
2024-12-09€8MBröndby IF
2025-06-16€15MBröndby IF
2025-10-06€12MNorwich City
2025-12-03€10MNorwich City
2026-03-03€8MNorwich City
2026-05-28€6MNorwich City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.043

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 23% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kvistgaarden appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).