FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Filipe

Relvas

CBPortugal · AEK Athens

№ 567497Established €4.1M +0.10

Player dossierSuper League

FilipeRelvas

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
26
Height
192 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Relvas at €4.5M. Model A, which never saw Relvas during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €4.1M▲ +0.47B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,561
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
39/42
Min / app
85
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Relvas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4.5MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Filipe Relvas's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 79th78thGoals17thAssists63rdMinutes78thStarts82ndRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,718 this player1,687 defender median82nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2021
Peak
€4.5M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
Jun 2026€4.5MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4.5M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-09-21€200kPortimonense SAD
2021-12-27€400kPortimonense SAD
2022-05-31€600kPortimonense SAD
2022-11-01€1MPortimonense SAD
2023-03-02€2MPortimonense SAD
2023-06-16€3.5MPortimonense SAD
2023-12-27€3.5MPortimonense SAD
2024-06-06€3.5MPortimonense SAD
2024-10-29€2.5MPortimonense SAD
2024-12-16€2MPortimonense SAD
2025-05-30€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2025-09-23€3.5MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€3.5MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€4.5MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.101

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 92% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€4.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Relvas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).