Arne
Engels
CMBelgium · Celtic FC
Player dossierPremiership
ArneEngels
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Celtic FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Belgium
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Engels at €20M. Model A, which never saw Engels during training, estimates €9.2M: the market value is 117% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €27.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 83
- Minutes
- 5,305
- Goals
- 15
- Assists
- 13
- Started
- 60/83
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Engels…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
26% this player0% midfielder median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €350k
- Oct 2020
- Peak
- €20M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €20M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 15
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €20M, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-21 | €350k | Club NXT |
| 2022-10-05 | €600k | Club NXT |
| 2022-12-22 | €500k | Club NXT |
| 2023-03-29 | €3.5M | FC Augsburg |
| 2023-06-22 | €7.5M | FC Augsburg |
| 2023-12-14 | €7.5M | FC Augsburg |
| 2024-05-29 | €9M | FC Augsburg |
| 2024-10-02 | €11M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €11M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €12M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €12M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-10-08 | €10M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €10M | Celtic FC |
| 2026-03-05 | €18M | Celtic FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €20M | Celtic FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.775
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
The highest observed value among 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Engels appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FernandezCBRangers FC · Premiership€18M
- MooreLWRangers FC · Premiership€18M
- ChermitiCFRangers FC · Premiership€15M
- NygrenAMCeltic FC · Premiership€14M
- GarcíaCMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€20M
- MaddisonAMTottenham Hotspur · midfielders€20M
- SchoutenDMPSV Eindhoven · midfielders€20M
- BentancurDMTottenham Hotspur · midfielders€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).