Johan
Bakayoko
RWBelgium · RB Leipzig
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
JohanBakayoko
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- RB Leipzig
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Belgium
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Bakayoko at €20M. Model A, which never saw Bakayoko during training, estimates €16.4M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 68
- Minutes
- 3,648
- Goals
- 15
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 39/68
- Min / app
- 54
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bakayoko…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
24% this player0% attacker median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Mar 2021
- Peak
- €45M
- May 2024
- Model target
- €20M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €20M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-16 | €100k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2021-10-12 | €200k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-01-12 | €500k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-06-23 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-09-14 | €4.5M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2022-11-11 | €4.5M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-03-17 | €9M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-06-23 | €10M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-10-17 | €25M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-12-15 | €40M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2024-05-31 | €45M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2024-12-17 | €40M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2025-03-28 | €35M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2025-05-28 | €30M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2025-12-19 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2026-03-20 | €22M | RB Leipzig |
| 2026-05-27 | €20M | RB Leipzig |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.199
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 82% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bakayoko appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrimaldoLBBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€20M
- GarcíaCMBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€20M
- BurgerDMTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€20M
- ReitzCMBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€20M
- SanéRWGalatasaray · attackers€20M
- GrealishLWEverton FC · attackers€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · attackers€20M
- AktürkoğluLWFenerbahce · attackers€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).