FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Vadim

Pigas

RBBelarus · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

№ 565171Emerging €772k −0.10

Player dossierPremier Liga

VadimPigas

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Belarus
Age
24
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pigas at €700k. Model A, which never saw Pigas during training, estimates €772k: the market value is 9% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €772k▼ −0.69B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,240
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
13/20
Min / app
62
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pigas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €772k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Vadim Pigas's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 93rd18thGoals17thAssists17thMinutes21stStarts36thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

28% this player0% defender median93rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2021
Peak
€800k
Sept 2025
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
May 2026€700kFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-25€50kIsloch Minsk Region
2021-12-09€100kIsloch Minsk Region
2022-06-17€150kIsloch Minsk Region
2022-11-30€250kIsloch Minsk Region
2023-07-11€300kIsloch Minsk Region
2023-12-06€350kIsloch Minsk Region
2024-07-02€300kDinamo Minsk
2024-12-06€500kDinamo Minsk
2025-06-19€600kDinamo Minsk
2025-09-18€800kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2025-12-16€800kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2026-05-26€700kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.098

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 24% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pigas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).