FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Arsen

Zakharyan

AMRussia · Real Sociedad

№ 555143Established €2.8M +1.17

Player dossierLaLiga

ArsenZakharyan

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Sociedad
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Russia
Age
23
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zakharyan at €9M. Model A, which never saw Zakharyan during training, estimates €2.8M: the market value is 222% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.17A €2.8M▲ +2.03B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
774
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
7/25
Min / app
31
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zakharyan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €9M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €9MModel A €2.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Arsen Zakharyan's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 60th87thGoals59thAssists8thMinutes4thStarts20thRecent60thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.23 this player0.08 midfielder median87th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2020
Peak
€18M
Jun 2024
Model target
€9M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
Jun 2026€9MReal SociedadValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €9M, Real Sociedad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-06-29€100kAkademia Dynamo Moscow U17
2020-10-19€200kDynamo 2 Moscow
2020-12-29€500kDynamo 2 Moscow
2021-04-13€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2021-05-26€4MDynamo Moscow
2021-09-15€9MDynamo Moscow
2021-12-29€12MDynamo Moscow
2022-06-02€15MDynamo Moscow
2022-11-21€15MDynamo Moscow
2023-06-14€15MDynamo Moscow
2023-12-22€15MReal Sociedad
2024-06-07€18MReal Sociedad
2024-12-27€18MReal Sociedad
2025-03-21€15MReal Sociedad
2025-06-09€9MReal Sociedad
2025-10-02€7.5MReal Sociedad
2025-12-12€7.5MReal Sociedad
2026-03-16€10MReal Sociedad
2026-06-05€9MReal Sociedad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.168

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 72% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 77% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zakharyan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).