FairValue

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Portrait of Santiago Gimenez

Santiago

Gimenez

CFMexico · AC Milan

№ 552955Elite €27.8M −0.44

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

SantiagoGimenez

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
AC Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
Mexico
Age
25
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gimenez at €18M. Model A, which never saw Gimenez during training, estimates €27.8M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €27.8M▲ +0.13B €15.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
3,147
Goals
23
Assists
9
Started
37/56
Min / app
56
Cards
8Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gimenez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €27.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Santiago Gimenez's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 84th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 76th97thGoals84thAssists69thMinutes62ndStarts39thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.66 this player0.26 attacker median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2019
Peak
€50M
Dec 2023
Model target
€18M
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€18MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €18M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-13€100kCD Cruz Azul U20
2020-01-10€100kCD Cruz Azul
2020-06-27€1.5MCD Cruz Azul
2020-12-18€2.5MCD Cruz Azul
2021-04-21€2.5MCD Cruz Azul
2021-10-15€4MCD Cruz Azul
2022-04-11€4MCD Cruz Azul
2022-11-11€6MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-03-17€9MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-06-23€25MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-10-17€40MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-12-15€50MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-03-18€45MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-05-31€40MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-12-17€37MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2025-06-17€30MAC Milan
2025-10-07€25MAC Milan
2025-12-23€20MAC Milan
2026-05-29€18MAC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.436

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 81% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 85% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gimenez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).