FairValue

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Nicolás

Otamendi

CBArgentina · SL Benfica

№ 54781Emerging €1.5M −0.40

Player dossierLiga Portugal

NicolásOtamendi

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SL Benfica
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Argentina
Age
38
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Otamendi at €1M. Model A, which never saw Otamendi during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €1.5M▼ −1.06B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
97
Minutes
8,579
Goals
11
Assists
10
Started
96/97
Min / app
88
Cards
18Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Otamendi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nicolás Otamendi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 96th91stGoals79thAssists100thMinutes94thStarts100thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

8,579 this player2,860 defender median100th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2007
Peak
€35M
Jan 2018
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
43
6 club changes
May 2026€1MSL BenficaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, SL Benfica. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2007-10-10€50kUnknown
2008-12-20€50kUnknown
2009-05-18€1.7MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2009-10-06€2.8MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2010-01-21€4.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2010-04-20€5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2011-02-04€4.7MFC Porto
2011-06-15€7MFC Porto
2011-09-21€8MFC Porto
2012-02-02€9.5MFC Porto
2012-07-07€9.5MFC Porto
2013-03-27€12MFC Porto
2013-07-02€13MFC Porto
2014-03-28€12MClube Atlético Mineiro
2014-07-20€12MValencia CF
2015-01-23€18MValencia CF
2015-07-01€25MValencia CF
2015-10-14€32MManchester City
2016-02-09€32MManchester City
2016-08-01€32MManchester City
2017-02-20€30MManchester City
2017-06-28€30MManchester City
2018-01-02€35MManchester City
2018-05-28€35MManchester City
2018-12-19€35MManchester City
2019-03-05€30MManchester City
2019-06-13€25MManchester City
2019-12-10€18MManchester City
2020-04-08€14.5MManchester City
2020-10-22€11MSL Benfica
2021-01-28€8MSL Benfica
2021-05-21€8MSL Benfica
2021-12-27€6MSL Benfica
2022-03-10€4.5MSL Benfica
2022-05-31€3.5MSL Benfica
2022-11-01€3MSL Benfica
2023-06-16€2MSL Benfica
2023-12-27€1.5MSL Benfica
2024-06-06€1MSL Benfica
2024-12-19€1MSL Benfica
2025-05-30€1MSL Benfica
2025-12-18€1MSL Benfica
2026-05-28€1MSL Benfica

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.404

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Otamendi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).