FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Léo

Cordeiro

CMBrazil · Ural Yekaterinburg

№ 547187Emerging €803k 0.00

Player dossierPremier Liga

LéoCordeiro

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Ural Yekaterinburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
30
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Cordeiro at €800k. Model A, which never saw Cordeiro during training, estimates €803k: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €956k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ 0.00A €803k▼ −0.18B €956k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
3,640
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
39/48
Min / app
76
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cordeiro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €803k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Léo Cordeiro's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 34th, Assists per 90 18th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th34thGoals18thAssists68thMinutes72ndStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

81% this player69% midfielder median72nd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2019
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2024
Model target
€800k
Dec 2025
Valuations
14
4 club changes
Dec 2025€800kUral YekaterinburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €800k, Ural Yekaterinburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-11€150kGil Vicente FC
2019-12-30€150kGil Vicente FC
2020-11-02€175kUD Vilafranquense
2021-06-29€200kUD Vilafranquense
2022-04-01€150kUD Vilafranquense
2022-06-27€250kUD Vilafranquense
2022-12-28€350kCD Mafra
2023-06-28€400kCD Mafra
2023-12-27€600kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-03-08€800kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-06-06€800kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-12-19€1.2MCF Estrela Amadora
2025-05-30€1MCF Estrela Amadora
2025-12-03€800kUral Yekaterinburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.003

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 33% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cordeiro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).