Paulinho
Bóia
LWBrazil · CD Nacional
Player dossierLiga Portugal
PaulinhoBóia
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- CD Nacional
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 171 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Bóia at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Bóia during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 48
- Minutes
- 3,916
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 46/48
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bóia…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
96% this player59% attacker median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2017
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Dec 2021
- Model target
- €1.2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €1.2M, CD Nacional. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-07 | €50k | São Paulo FC U20 |
| 2018-11-01 | €100k | Portimonense SAD |
| 2019-01-11 | €100k | Portimonense SAD |
| 2019-06-07 | €100k | Portimonense SAD |
| 2020-09-09 | €1M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2021-02-09 | €1M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2021-05-28 | €1M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2021-12-17 | €1.2M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-01-06 | €1M | Kyoto Sanga |
| 2023-06-28 | €700k | Kyoto Sanga |
| 2023-12-11 | €700k | América Futebol Clube (MG) |
| 2024-04-18 | €700k | Mirassol Futebol Clube (SP) |
| 2024-11-27 | €700k | Paysandu SC |
| 2025-05-30 | €700k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-12-18 | €800k | CD Nacional |
| 2026-03-19 | €1M | CD Nacional |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.2M | CD Nacional |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.209
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 51% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bóia appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LopesRWCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- LucãoGKGil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- EeCMFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- DanteLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- SánchezSSSevilla FC · attackers€1.2M
- PerišićLWPSV Eindhoven · attackers€1.2M
- PortuRWGirona FC · attackers€1.2M
- BakambuCFReal Betis Balompié · attackers€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).