FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Frederik

Alves

CBDenmark · Bröndby IF

№ 542690Established €2.2M +0.24

Player dossierSuperliga

FrederikAlves

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Bröndby IF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
26
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Alves at €2.8M. Model A, which never saw Alves during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €2.2M▲ +0.16B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
3,468
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
38/43
Min / app
81
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alves…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.8MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Frederik Alves's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 72nd45thGoals17thAssists61stMinutes65thStarts48thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

10% this player0% defender median72nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2018
Peak
€2.8M
Dec 2025
Model target
€2.8M
May 2026
Valuations
18
3 club changes
May 2026€2.8MBröndby IFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.8M, Bröndby IF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€100kSilkeborg IF U19
2019-06-24€300kSilkeborg IF
2019-09-09€350kSilkeborg IF
2019-12-22€300kSilkeborg IF
2020-07-31€350kSilkeborg IF
2020-12-23€400kSilkeborg IF
2021-03-18€1MWest Ham United
2021-06-03€1MWest Ham United
2022-06-20€900kBröndby IF
2022-09-13€700kBröndby IF
2022-12-22€600kBröndby IF
2023-06-26€500kBröndby IF
2023-12-21€2.5MBröndby IF
2024-06-10€2.5MBröndby IF
2024-12-09€2.5MBröndby IF
2025-06-16€2.5MBröndby IF
2025-12-15€2.8MBröndby IF
2026-05-25€2.8MBröndby IF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.241

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 83% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 58% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alves appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).