FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Raúl

Fernández

GKSpain · Deportivo Alavés

№ 54217Emerging €157k −0.45

Player dossierLaLiga

RaúlFernández

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
38
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernández at €100k. Model A, which never saw Fernández during training, estimates €157k: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €98k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.45A €157k▲ +0.02B €98k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
5
Minutes
450
Started
5/5
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernández…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €157k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Raúl Fernández's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 32nd1stMinutes62ndStarts17thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2007
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2013
Model target
€100k
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
9 club changes
Jun 2026€100kDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €100k, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2007-07-25€50kBilbao Athletic
2007-07-26€100kBilbao Athletic
2008-02-04€500kBilbao Athletic
2010-08-15€600kAthletic Bilbao
2011-02-04€600kAthletic Bilbao
2011-07-29€800kAthletic Bilbao
2012-02-03€800kAthletic Bilbao
2012-08-07€1MAthletic Bilbao
2013-01-11€1MAthletic Bilbao
2013-06-12€1.5MAthletic Bilbao
2013-10-08€1MCD Numancia
2014-02-06€800kCD Numancia
2014-08-12€800kRacing Santander
2015-01-08€500kRacing Santander
2015-07-01€400kCD Mirandés
2015-11-20€500kCD Mirandés
2016-02-22€600kCD Mirandés
2016-07-15€700kLevante UD
2017-01-24€1MLevante UD
2017-06-29€1.5MLevante UD
2018-01-01€1.5MLevante UD
2018-05-30€1MLevante UD
2019-02-19€1MUD Las Palmas
2019-06-29€1MUD Las Palmas
2019-12-20€800kUD Las Palmas
2020-04-08€650kUD Las Palmas
2020-10-08€400kUD Las Palmas
2021-01-08€200kUD Las Palmas
2021-06-24€200kUD Las Palmas
2021-12-27€200kUD Las Palmas
2022-06-29€200kUD Las Palmas
2022-12-29€300kGranada CF
2023-06-14€300kGranada CF
2023-12-22€300kGranada CF
2024-06-07€200kGranada CF
2024-12-13€200kCD Mirandés
2025-06-24€200kCD Mirandés
2025-12-12€200kDeportivo Alavés
2026-06-05€100kDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.450

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

The joint lowest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 3% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernández appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).