FairValue

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Felix

Winther

CMDenmark · FC Fredericia

№ 541594Emerging €701k −0.16

Player dossierSuperliga

FelixWinther

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Fredericia
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
26
Height
185 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Winther at €600k. Model A, which never saw Winther during training, estimates €701k: the market value is 14% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €816k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.16A €701k▼ −0.31B €816k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
1,539
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
18/19
Min / app
81
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Winther…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €701k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Felix Winther's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 33rd, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 30th61stGoals33rdAssists26thMinutes93rdStarts50thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

95% this player69% midfielder median93rd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2018
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
May 2026€600kFC FredericiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, FC Fredericia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€25kFC Copenhagen U19
2019-09-09€200kBK Fremad Amager
2019-12-22€200kBK Fremad Amager
2020-07-31€200kBK Fremad Amager
2020-12-23€200kBK Fremad Amager
2022-01-03€200kTromsø IL
2022-12-09€300kTromsø IL
2023-06-29€300kTromsø IL
2023-09-07€250kTromsø IL
2023-12-15€250kTromsø IL
2024-06-12€250kTromsø IL
2024-12-09€250kFC Fredericia
2025-06-16€350kFC Fredericia
2025-12-15€500kFC Fredericia
2026-05-25€600kFC Fredericia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.156

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 34% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Winther appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).