FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Yevgeniy

Kucherenko

GKUkraine · Panetolikos

№ 537841Emerging €1.4M −1.28

Player dossierSuper League

YevgeniyKucherenko

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Panetolikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
26
Height
192 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kucherenko at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kucherenko during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 72% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.28A €1.4M▼ −1.81B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
5,100
Started
56/56
Min / app
91
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kucherenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Yevgeniy Kucherenko's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 71st78thMinutes62ndStarts67thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,100 this player2,790 goalkeeper median78th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2020
Peak
€600k
Mar 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
6 club changes
Jun 2026€400kPanetolikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Panetolikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-04€100kKolos Kovalivka
2021-01-14€100kKolos Kovalivka
2021-06-07€100kKolos Kovalivka
2021-12-06€125kPodillya Khmelnytskyi
2022-06-10€200kFC Aksu
2022-11-25€250kFC Aksu
2023-05-25€300kFC Dila Gori
2023-09-01€250kFC Dila Gori
2023-12-12€250kFC Dila Gori
2024-06-06€250kLNZ Cherkasy
2024-09-12€400kLNZ Cherkasy
2024-12-17€500kLNZ Cherkasy
2025-03-21€600kLNZ Cherkasy
2025-06-10€600kLNZ Cherkasy
2025-12-10€400kDundee United FC
2026-06-04€400kPanetolikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.279

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kucherenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).