FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Giulian

Biancone

CBFrance · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 536507Established €3.3M −0.29

Player dossierSuper League

GiulianBiancone

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
France
Age
26
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Biancone at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Biancone during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €3.3M▲ 0.00B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
2,785
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
28/43
Min / app
65
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Biancone…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Giulian Biancone's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 79th93rdGoals45thAssists49thMinutes21stStarts42ndRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2019
Peak
€8M
Sept 2022
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
4 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-02-15€500kAS Monaco
2019-06-03€500kAS Monaco
2019-09-13€1MCercle Brugge
2019-12-13€1.3MCercle Brugge
2020-04-08€1.1MCercle Brugge
2020-10-16€1.3MCercle Brugge
2021-06-07€1.3MCercle Brugge
2021-10-08€2.5MESTAC Troyes
2021-12-16€3.5MESTAC Troyes
2022-05-30€4MESTAC Troyes
2022-09-15€8MNottingham Forest
2022-11-03€7MNottingham Forest
2023-06-20€6MNottingham Forest
2023-12-20€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-03-06€4MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€3MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-18€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-12€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€2.5MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.291

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 83% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Biancone appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).