FairValue

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Bogdan

Ovsyannikov

GKRussia · FC Orenburg

№ 534477Emerging €1.3M −0.38

Player dossierPremier Liga

BogdanOvsyannikov

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Orenburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
27
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ovsyannikov at €900k. Model A, which never saw Ovsyannikov during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.38A €1.3M▼ −0.48B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,880
Started
32/32
Min / app
90
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ovsyannikov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Bogdan Ovsyannikov's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 32nd51stMinutes62ndStarts70thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,610 this player1,560 goalkeeper median70th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Oct 2018
Peak
€900k
Mar 2026
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
May 2026€900kFC OrenburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, FC Orenburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-14€75kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2018-12-20€150kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2019-06-14€175kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2019-12-23€175kKrylya Sovetov Samara II
2020-03-30€200kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2020-07-29€200kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2020-12-29€200kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-04-12€300kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-05-24€350kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-12-06€300kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2022-06-02€300kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2022-11-21€600kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-06-14€600kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-12-13€700kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-06-04€600kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-09-18€500kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-12-12€400kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-06-04€300kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-09-18€700kFC Orenburg
2025-12-16€700kFC Orenburg
2026-03-25€900kFC Orenburg
2026-05-26€900kFC Orenburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.380

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 45% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ovsyannikov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).