MarcoMoreno

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: SD Eibar
League: LaLiga
Nationality: Spain
Age: 24
Height: 191 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 30 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Moreno at €700k. Model A, which never saw Moreno during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 68% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 26
Minutes: 2,137
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 25/26
Min / app: 82
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moreno…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player83% defender median87th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jul 2020
Peak: €700k; May 2025
Model target: €700k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 13; 2 club changes

Dec 2025€700kSD EibarValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €700k, SD Eibar. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2020-07-23	€50k	Atlético Madrileño
2020-10-08	€50k	Atlético Madrileño
2021-01-08	€50k	Atlético Madrileño
2021-06-30	€50k	Atlético Madrileño
2022-09-26	€25k	Atlético Madrileño
2022-12-29	€100k	Atlético Madrileño
2023-06-30	€200k	Atlético Madrileño
2023-10-13	€250k	Atlético Madrileño
2023-12-20	€300k	Atlético Madrileño
2024-06-24	€400k	Atlético Madrileño
2024-12-19	€600k	SC Farense
2025-05-30	€700k	SC Farense
2025-12-30	€700k	SD Eibar

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −1.146

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 4% of the 509 LaLiga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Moreno appears

TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).