FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ennio van der

Gouw

GKNetherlands · Rio Ave FC

№ 529425Emerging €450k −0.12

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Ennio van derGouw

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Rio Ave FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gouw at €400k. Model A, which never saw Gouw during training, estimates €450k: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €657k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €450k▼ −0.50B €657k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
900
Started
10/10
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gouw…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €450k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ennio van der Gouw's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 32nd14thMinutes62ndStarts35thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2020
Peak
€600k
Apr 2025
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
May 2026€400kRio Ave FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Rio Ave FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-12€50kFC Twente Enschede
2020-10-14€50kFC Twente Enschede
2021-05-19€50kFC Twente Enschede
2022-01-05€50kFC Twente Enschede
2022-06-08€50kFC Twente Enschede
2023-04-03€400kVVV-Venlo
2023-07-04€400kVVV-Venlo
2023-12-28€300kZulte Waregem
2024-06-20€200kZulte Waregem
2024-10-15€350kZulte Waregem
2024-12-20€400kZulte Waregem
2025-04-24€600kZulte Waregem
2025-10-01€500kZulte Waregem
2025-12-10€400kZulte Waregem
2026-05-28€400kRio Ave FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.117

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gouw appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).