Nicolò

Rovella

DMItaly · SS Lazio

№ 525704Elite €6.8M +1.22

Player dossierSerie A

NicolòRovella

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club: SS Lazio
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 24
Height: 179 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rovella at €23M. Model A, which never saw Rovella during training, estimates €6.8M: the market value is 238% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 56
Minutes: 4,035
Goals: 0
Assists: 5
Started: 45/56
Min / app: 72
Cards: 19Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rovella…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €23M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% midfielder median76th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €800k; Jun 2020
Peak: €30M; Jun 2025
Model target: €23M; May 2026
Valuations: 17; 3 club changes

May 2026€23MSS LazioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €23M, SS Lazio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2020-06-26	€800k	Genoa U19
2020-10-29	€2.5M	Genoa CFC
2020-12-29	€4M	Genoa CFC
2021-06-03	€5M	Genoa CFC
2021-10-14	€6M	Genoa CFC
2021-12-28	€10M	Genoa CFC
2022-06-07	€10M	Genoa CFC
2022-11-11	€12M	AC Monza
2023-06-15	€18M	AC Monza
2023-12-20	€18M	SS Lazio
2024-06-05	€18M	SS Lazio
2024-12-18	€25M	SS Lazio
2025-03-25	€28M	SS Lazio
2025-06-17	€30M	SS Lazio
2025-12-23	€28M	SS Lazio
2026-03-24	€23M	SS Lazio
2026-05-29	€23M	SS Lazio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +1.219

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 87% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 90% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Rovella appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).