FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Taras

Moroz

DMUkraine · Obolon Kyiv

№ 522832Emerging €260k −0.04

Player dossierPremier Liha

TarasMoroz

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Obolon Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
30
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moroz at €250k. Model A, which never saw Moroz during training, estimates €260k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €480k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €260k▼ −0.65B €480k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,630
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
18/29
Min / app
56
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moroz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €260k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Taras Moroz's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists28thMinutes37thStarts24thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

62% this player69% midfielder median37th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Oct 2020
Peak
€400k
Dec 2023
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
1 club change
Jun 2026€250kObolon KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Obolon Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-05€25kNyva Ternopil
2020-12-05€50kNyva Ternopil
2021-06-17€75kNyva Ternopil
2021-12-06€125kNyva Ternopil
2022-05-18€125kNyva Ternopil
2022-12-06€175kObolon Kyiv
2023-06-21€250kObolon Kyiv
2023-09-14€300kObolon Kyiv
2023-12-11€400kObolon Kyiv
2024-06-06€400kObolon Kyiv
2024-12-17€300kObolon Kyiv
2025-06-10€250kObolon Kyiv
2025-12-18€100kObolon Kyiv
2026-03-23€250kObolon Kyiv
2026-06-02€250kObolon Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.039

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 17% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moroz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).