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Danilo

CFBrazil · NEC Nijmegen

№ 519731Emerging €4.1M −1.00

Player dossierEredivisie

Danilo

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
NEC Nijmegen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Brazil
Age
27
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Danilo at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Danilo during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.00A €4.1M▼ −1.58B €7.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
2,208
Goals
10
Assists
7
Started
21/58
Min / app
38
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Danilo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Danilo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 88th78thGoals88thAssists50thMinutes16thStarts55thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% attacker median88th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jan 2019
Peak
€7M
Dec 2023
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
22
5 club changes
May 2026€1.5MNEC NijmegenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, NEC Nijmegen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-21€500kAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-07-03€750kAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-04-08€675kAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-06-29€1MAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-10-14€3MFC Twente Enschede
2021-01-06€5MFC Twente Enschede
2021-03-09€4.5MFC Twente Enschede
2021-05-19€4.2MFC Twente Enschede
2022-01-05€4.2MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€4MAjax Amsterdam
2022-09-14€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-11-11€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-06-23€6.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-12-05€7MRangers FC
2024-03-20€6MRangers FC
2024-05-30€6MRangers FC
2024-10-02€5MRangers FC
2024-12-03€4.5MRangers FC
2025-03-12€4MRangers FC
2025-06-17€2MRangers FC
2025-12-10€2MRangers FC
2026-05-28€1.5MNEC Nijmegen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.002

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 54% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Danilo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).