Danilo
CFBrazil · NEC Nijmegen
Player dossierEredivisie
Danilo
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- NEC Nijmegen
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 174 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Danilo at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Danilo during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 58
- Minutes
- 2,208
- Goals
- 10
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 21/58
- Min / app
- 38
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Danilo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
24% this player0% attacker median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Jan 2019
- Peak
- €7M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 22
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, NEC Nijmegen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-21 | €500k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2019-07-03 | €750k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2020-04-08 | €675k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2020-06-29 | €1M | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2020-10-14 | €3M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2021-01-06 | €5M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2021-03-09 | €4.5M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2021-05-19 | €4.2M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-01-05 | €4.2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-06-08 | €4M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2022-09-14 | €5M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2022-11-11 | €5M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2023-06-23 | €6.5M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2023-12-05 | €7M | Rangers FC |
| 2024-03-20 | €6M | Rangers FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €6M | Rangers FC |
| 2024-10-02 | €5M | Rangers FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €4.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €4M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | NEC Nijmegen |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.002
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 54% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Danilo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TraunerCBFeyenoord Rotterdam · Eredivisie€1.5M
- PjacaLWFC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie€1.5M
- NieuwkoopRBFeyenoord Rotterdam · Eredivisie€1.5M
- SampstedRBGo Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · attackers€1.5M
- BelottiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€1.5M
- BeckerLW1.FSV Mainz 05 · attackers€1.5M
- GlatzelCFHamburger SV · attackers€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).