Matheus

Cunha

CFBrazil · Manchester United

№ 517894World Class €54.2M +0.33

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MatheusCunha

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club: Manchester United
League: Premier League
Nationality: Brazil
Age: 27
Height: 183 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cunha at €75M. Model A, which never saw Cunha during training, estimates €54.2M: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 70
Minutes: 5,496
Goals: 27
Assists: 10
Started: 62/70
Min / app: 79
Cards: 7Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cunha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €75M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,496 this player2,242 attacker median94th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Jul 2017
Peak: €75M; Jun 2026
Model target: €75M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 28; 5 club changes

Jun 2026€75MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €75M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-07-12	€100k	FC Sion
2018-01-08	€100k	FC Sion
2018-04-24	€1.5M	FC Sion
2018-08-22	€12.5M	RB Leipzig
2018-12-18	€12.5M	RB Leipzig
2019-06-05	€15M	RB Leipzig
2019-12-17	€13M	RB Leipzig
2020-02-11	€15M	Hertha BSC
2020-04-08	€13.5M	Hertha BSC
2020-07-08	€22M	Hertha BSC
2020-11-26	€32M	Hertha BSC
2021-02-10	€30M	Hertha BSC
2021-06-09	€30M	Hertha BSC
2021-12-30	€30M	Atlético de Madrid
2022-06-03	€30M	Atlético de Madrid
2022-11-07	€20M	Atlético de Madrid
2023-03-16	€30M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20	€25M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-10-09	€28M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2023-12-19	€32M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-03-14	€42M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-05-27	€45M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2024-12-16	€50M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2025-03-18	€55M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2025-05-30	€60M	Wolverhampton Wanderers
2025-10-17	€70M	Manchester United
2025-12-09	€70M	Manchester United
2026-06-03	€75M	Manchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.325

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 95% of the 555 Premier League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Cunha appears

TerminalPremier League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).