Flynn
Downes
DMEngland · Southampton FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
FlynnDownes
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Southampton FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Downes at €12M. Model A, which never saw Downes during training, estimates €8.6M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 28
- Minutes
- 2,233
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 26/28
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Downes…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
93% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Sept 2017
- Peak
- €15M
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €12M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 16
- 3 club changes
Dec 2025: €12M, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-18 | €100k | Ipswich Town |
| 2018-09-24 | €500k | Ipswich Town |
| 2019-06-28 | €1M | Ipswich Town |
| 2020-04-08 | €900k | Ipswich Town |
| 2021-11-24 | €1.2M | Swansea City |
| 2022-05-13 | €2M | Swansea City |
| 2022-09-15 | €8M | West Ham United |
| 2022-11-03 | €8M | West Ham United |
| 2023-06-20 | €9M | West Ham United |
| 2023-12-21 | €8M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-03-07 | €7M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-05-24 | €9M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-10-01 | €13M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-12-16 | €15M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €13M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-12-03 | €12M | Southampton FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.328
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Downes appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MartínezGKAston Villa · Premier League€12M
- AkéCBManchester City · Premier League€12M
- StonesCBManchester City · Premier League€12M
- MurphyRWNewcastle United · Premier League€12M
- GoretzkaCMBayern Munich · midfielders€12M
- SzymanskiAMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- CamaraCMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- OdgaardAMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€12M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).