Paulo
Bernardo
CMPortugal · Celtic FC
Player dossierPremiership
PauloBernardo
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Celtic FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Bernardo at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Bernardo during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 119% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 54
- Minutes
- 2,070
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 22/54
- Min / app
- 38
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bernardo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
22% this player0% midfielder median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €6M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €3.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €3.5M, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-02 | €150k | SL Benfica B |
| 2021-05-21 | €1.5M | SL Benfica B |
| 2021-12-27 | €5M | SL Benfica B |
| 2022-05-31 | €5M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-11-01 | €4M | SL Benfica |
| 2023-03-02 | €3M | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2023-06-16 | €3M | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2023-12-05 | €3M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €3.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-10-02 | €4M | Celtic FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €4.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €6M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €5.5M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-10-08 | €5M | Celtic FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €4M | Celtic FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €3.5M | Celtic FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.786
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 91% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bernardo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KyziridisLWHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€3.5M
- AntmanRWRangers FC · Premiership€4M
- ShanklandCFHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€3M
- IheanachoCFCeltic FC · Premiership€3M
- ModrićCMAC Milan · midfielders€3.5M
- IscoAMReal Betis Balompié · midfielders€3.5M
- ZappacostaRMAtalanta BC · midfielders€3.5M
- SansonCMOGC Nice · midfielders€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).