FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Eduardo Quaresma

Eduardo

Quaresma

CBPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 504073Elite €12.2M +0.33

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

EduardoQuaresma

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
24
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Quaresma at €17M. Model A, which never saw Quaresma during training, estimates €12.2M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.33A €12.2M▲ +0.97B €6.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,584
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
42/53
Min / app
68
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Quaresma…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €17M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €17MModel A €12.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Eduardo Quaresma's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 82nd78thGoals57thAssists63rdMinutes43rdStarts53rdRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

18% this player0% defender median82nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€7M
Aug 2020
Peak
€18M
May 2025
Model target
€17M
May 2026
Valuations
17
3 club changes
May 2026€17MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €17M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-17€7MSporting CP
2021-01-28€6MSporting CP
2021-05-21€5MSporting CP
2021-12-27€4MCD Tondela
2022-05-31€4MCD Tondela
2022-11-09€4MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-03-29€3MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-06-22€2.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-12-27€2.5MSporting CP
2024-03-08€7MSporting CP
2024-06-06€8MSporting CP
2024-10-08€14MSporting CP
2024-12-19€14MSporting CP
2025-05-30€18MSporting CP
2025-09-30€17MSporting CP
2025-12-18€15MSporting CP
2026-05-28€17MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.329

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Quaresma appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).