Taylor
Harwood-Bellis
CBEngland · Southampton FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
TaylorHarwood-Bellis
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Southampton FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Harwood-Bellis at €20M. Model A, which never saw Harwood-Bellis during training, estimates €11.2M: the market value is 79% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 38
- Minutes
- 3,089
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 35/38
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Harwood-Bellis…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
92% this player83% defender median76th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €2.5M
- Sept 2019
- Peak
- €25M
- Jul 2023
- Model target
- €20M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 16
- 6 club changes
Dec 2025: €20M, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-25 | €2.5M | Manchester City U23 |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.3M | Manchester City U23 |
| 2020-10-13 | €2.3M | Manchester City U23 |
| 2021-03-10 | €3M | Blackburn Rovers |
| 2022-01-06 | €3M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-05-13 | €7M | Stoke City |
| 2022-09-14 | €10M | Burnley FC |
| 2022-10-27 | €13M | Burnley FC |
| 2023-03-24 | €15M | Burnley FC |
| 2023-06-01 | €20M | Manchester City |
| 2023-07-12 | €25M | Manchester City |
| 2023-12-21 | €22M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-05-24 | €22M | Southampton FC |
| 2024-12-16 | €25M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €22M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-12-03 | €20M | Southampton FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.580
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Harwood-Bellis appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrealishLWEverton FC · Premier League€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- AndersenCBFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- DansoCBTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€20M
- GrimaldoLBBayer 04 Leverkusen · defenders€20M
- LlorenteRBAtlético de Madrid · defenders€20M
- SarrCBRC Lens · defenders€20M
- NormandCBAtlético de Madrid · defenders€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).