Joe
Hodge
DMIreland · CD Tondela
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoeHodge
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- CD Tondela
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Ireland
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 172 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Hodge at €700k. Model A, which never saw Hodge during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 31% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 1,501
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 19/27
- Min / app
- 56
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hodge…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
70% this player69% midfielder median52nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Nov 2022
- Peak
- €2M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €700k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 9
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €700k, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | €500k | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 2023-06-20 | €2M | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 2023-12-19 | €1.8M | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 2024-03-07 | €1.5M | Queens Park Rangers |
| 2024-05-24 | €1.5M | Queens Park Rangers |
| 2024-12-27 | €1.2M | Huddersfield Town |
| 2025-06-18 | €1M | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 2025-12-18 | €700k | CD Tondela |
| 2026-05-28 | €700k | CD Tondela |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.378
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 33% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Hodge appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PaciênciaCFCD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal€700k
- ContéLBCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€700k
- GrauCMAvs Futebol · Liga Portugal€700k
- SoaresAMCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€700k
- RomeuDMSouthampton FC · midfielders€700k
- CoquelinDMFC Nantes · midfielders€700k
- MendyDMWatford FC · midfielders€700k
- PereyraCMAEK Athens · midfielders€700k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).