Morgan
Rogers
AMEngland · Aston Villa
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
MorganRogers
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Aston Villa
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Rogers at €90M. Model A, which never saw Rogers during training, estimates €122M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €82.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 108
- Minutes
- 8,970
- Goals
- 27
- Assists
- 27
- Started
- 103/108
- Min / app
- 83
- Cards
- 21Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rogers…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €90M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,970 this player2,607 midfielder median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1.5M
- Dec 2019
- Peak
- €90M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €90M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €90M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-10 | €1.5M | Manchester City U23 |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.3M | Manchester City U23 |
| 2021-11-24 | €1.8M | AFC Bournemouth |
| 2022-05-13 | €1.8M | AFC Bournemouth |
| 2023-03-24 | €1.8M | Blackpool FC |
| 2023-06-01 | €1.8M | Manchester City U21 |
| 2023-10-27 | €2.2M | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2023-12-21 | €2.8M | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2024-03-14 | €8M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-05-27 | €15M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-10-01 | €22M | Aston Villa |
| 2024-12-16 | €40M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-03-18 | €50M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-05-30 | €55M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-10-17 | €65M | Aston Villa |
| 2025-12-09 | €70M | Aston Villa |
| 2026-03-09 | €80M | Aston Villa |
| 2026-06-03 | €90M | Aston Villa |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.301
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Joint 9th highest observed value among 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 99% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Rogers appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CherkiAMManchester City · Premier League€90M
- FernándezCMChelsea FC · Premier League€90M
- IsakCFLiverpool FC · Premier League€85M
- SzoboszlaiAMLiverpool FC · Premier League€100M
- ValverdeCMReal Madrid · midfielders€90M
- PavlovicDMBayern Munich · midfielders€90M
- GülerAMReal Madrid · midfielders€90M
- PalmerAMChelsea FC · midfielders€100M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).